Colonizing, Decolonizing, and Globalizing Kolkata
Siddhartha Sen
- Title
- The Essence of Scenarios
- Subtitle
- Learning from the Shell Experience
- Price
- € 41,95 excl. VAT
- ISBN
- 9789089645944
- Format
- Paperback
- Number of pages
- 168
- Language
- English
- Publication date
- 20 - 02 - 2014
- Dimensions
- 15.6 x 23.4 cm
- Category
- Economics and Finance
- Discipline
- Social and Political Sciences
- Also available as
- eBook PDF - € 41,99
Acknowledgements 7
Preface by Peter Ho 9
Introduction: The ŸGentle ArtŒ 13
Sources 17
I A Unique Legacy 19
II Shell Scenarios — A History, 1965-2013 25
Experimentation and Emergence, 1965-1981 25
Moving Closer to the Business, 1982-1990 44
Culture Change, 1990-1999 51
Cheaper, Deeper Thinking, 1999-2006 58
New Pathways to ‘Challenging and Heard’, 2006-2013 67
III The Essence of the Shell Art 75
1 Improving Intuition 77
2 Plausible, Not Probable 80
3 Striking the Balance Between Relevant and Challenging 84
4 Pragmatic, Not Ideological 85
5 Realizing the Role of the Future in the Present 88
6 Focused and Targeted 89
7 Engaging the Client in the Process 91
8 Memorable, Yet Disposable 93
9 Storytelling — the Heart of Strategic Conversation 95
10 The Necessity of Numbers 97
11 The Creation of a Scenario Team 101
12 Serving as Door-Openers and Adding Value to External Relationships 104
13 Fostering a Culture of Openness and Curiosity 106
14 Managing Disagreement as an Asset 108
15 Providing Value within a Broader Management System 109
IV Looking Ahead 113
From ‘Seeing’ to ‘Seeding’, Not Growing Better Futures 114
Beyond Products to Value-Added Services 115
The Future of Shell Scenarios 117
Business Lens 121
Reaching Out 122
V Conclusion 123
The Evolution Continues — the Essence Remains 127
Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders 131
Afterword 135
A Timeline 137
B Summary of Scenarios 139
Index 167
Reviews and Features
Reviews
"This is a major case study of scenario planning, something that is not easily available to the student of scenario planning." - Kees van der Heijden, Director and co-founder of the Global Business Network (GBN) in the United States. Emeritus Professor, Strathclyde University. Former head of the Business Environment Division in Group Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell and author of the bestselling business book 'Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation'
"With unique access to all the Shell players, this study, should be extremely useful for all those companies and governments that have already introduced or that will be introducing scenario planning in the near future. It will help their managers to learn much more quickly how to improve their planning procedures and better deal with the unknowable future. The book shows the value of scenario use as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise." -- Arie de Geus, Former Corporate Planning Director at Royal Dutch Shell.
"Shell stands as birthplace of business scenarios. While the Shell method has been extensively covered as a tool, what is needed is a broader appreciation of the contexts of scenario development As someone who teaches scenario planning at the graduate and undergraduate level, I would definitely start with this story as a frame to talk about the diverse practices that have sprouted up around and since Shell's landmark practice."-- Cynthia Selin, Assistant Professor, School of Sustainability, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University
"For anyone interested in following the history of Shell's work on developing and seeking to apply scenarios, this is an essential read." -- Michael Jefferson, ESCP Europe Business School, London
"This is a major case study of scenario planning, something that is not easily available to the student of scenario planning." - Kees van der Heijden, Director and co-founder of the Global Business Network (GBN) in the United States. Emeritus Professor, Strathclyde University. Former head of the Business Environment Division in Group Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell and author of the bestselling business book 'Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation'
"With unique access to all the Shell players, this study, should be extremely useful for all those companies and governments that have already introduced or that will be introducing scenario planning in the near future. It will help their managers to learn much more quickly how to improve their planning procedures and better deal with the unknowable future. The book shows the value of scenario use as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise." -- Arie de Geus, Former Corporate Planning Director at Royal Dutch Shell.
"Shell stands as birthplace of business scenarios. While the Shell method has been extensively covered as a tool, what is needed is a broader appreciation of the contexts of scenario development As someone who teaches scenario planning at the graduate and undergraduate level, I would definitely start with this story as a frame to talk about the diverse practices that have sprouted up around and since Shell's landmark practice."-- Cynthia Selin, Assistant Professor, School of Sustainability, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University
"For anyone interested in following the history of Shell's work on developing and seeking to apply scenarios, this is an essential read." -- Michael Jefferson, ESCP Europe Business School, London
Roland Kupers, Angela Wilkinson
The Essence of Scenarios
Learning from the Shell Experience
In 1965, when quantitative planning was much in vogue, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a different way of looking into the future: scenario planning. Shell's practice has now survived for almost half a century and has had a huge influence on how businesses, governments, and other organisations think about and plan for the future. To produce this illuminating study, the authors interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with top Shell executives through the years. They identify several principles that both define the process at Shell and help explain how it has thrived for so long. For instance, Shell scenarios are stories, not predictions, and are designed to help break the habit, ingrained in most corporate planning, of assuming that the future will look much like the present.
Authors
Roland Kupers
Roland Kupers is an associate fellow in the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.
Angela Wilkinson
Angela Wilkinson, PhD (Physics), is Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford and former Director of Foresight for the OECD. She is a recognised and respected global leading scholar and practitioner in scenario planning and foresight. She spent a decade in Shell's global scenario team.
